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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2014 3:12 am 
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So the breakdown of the Stanton contract came out today and it's actually very favorable to Loria/the Marlins in the short-term. $106MM of the $325MM is before the opt-out in 2020, so the Marlins will be able to field a competitive team up until then, but after then A) Stanton would be fuckin' nuts to opt out of this deal and B) the Marlins are likely fucked for the rest of that contract unless the economics of the game drastically change. I don't think B is going to happen, because even today we look at the $250MM deal A-Rod signed in 2001 as nuts and in 2021 Stanton would be owed $219MM over seven years.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, with the Stanton's post-beaning play, the crappy Miami market, how the Marlins play this on the field/GM box and what happens with the ownership down there.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2014 12:42 pm 

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yeah but what if stanton is sitting on 500 homeruns by then? the idea is that stanton is one of those players. im sure that he will be DHing in the AL by the end of it anyways basically loria signed him to a huge deal that another owner is probably gonna have to pay most of. because lets say suddenly 7 years down the road the yankees or red sox come sniffing like you know they will. even with a no trade clause ANYONE would rather play for the yankees or red sox than the marlins. what i see happening is loria paying about $107 million of his contract then trading him for a bunch of prospects. its brilliant if you think about it. keep an all star in his prime and then trade him to an elite organization so the contract can cripple that team when the time comes. its a brilliant plan if you ask me.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Wed Nov 19, 2014 8:53 pm 
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Should have expected it to be backloaded like that.

Well done, Loria. This only throws gasoline on the fire and further convinces me that he intends to take this team to the bank in the next few years and put the team on the market. He now has a face to his brand, which should boost its marketability in a pretty unmarketable city right now (assuming Stanton is mentally alright after his beaning), and I bet he gets out before ever having to be the one responsible for paying Stanton once the 2nd half of the contract kicks in.


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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 3:33 am 
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I'm not as cynical as Olbermann on this, but he is on the right track.


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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Sun Nov 23, 2014 11:53 pm 
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Red Sox apparently are going to announce the signing of Hanley Ramirez tomorrow. Five years for $90MM. It apparently isn't going to effect their pursuit of Panda Sandoval either.

I'm actually kind of relieved the M's are out on Hanley, as they were heavily tied to him in the rumor mill. I like the two SS guys they've got coming up; Chris Taylor and Brad Miller. I guess going balls out with Nelson Cruz or trading for Justin Upton or Matt Kemp is going to be their big play now.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:20 am 

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They supposedly have Sandoval ready to go at 5/$100 too.


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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:33 am 

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They will regret both deals by year 2, especially Sandoval. Guy has only hit over 25 hrs and 90 RBI's once in his career. Plus, his OPS continues to drop. We all know he has weight issues so I don't see this deal working out long term for them. See below. I guess Bogaertes is now on the market for pitching.


Sandoval's OPS
2011 - .909
2012 - .789
2013 - .758
2014 - .739

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:02 pm 

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Kyle Seager resigned with the Mariners for 7 years/$100 million.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:19 pm 
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whoshotthefrog wrote:
Kyle Seager resigned with the Mariners for 7 years/$100 million.


I can get behind this. Sandoval money, with two extra years. I'd bet Seager is the more productive player over the next five years, especially factoring in defense/injuries.

That Hanley deal is apparently four years, $88MM, with a fifth year option. Yikes.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:35 pm 

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congrats on that seager deal red. finally soething that makes sense this offseason.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 3:38 pm 

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do you think the red sox can outpay the cubbies and the yanees for pitching now?they are gonna have to trade half their prospects to the philles for cole hamels now. and hamels is overrated.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 4:50 pm 

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Demon Lung wrote:
do you think the red sox can outpay the cubbies and the yanees for pitching now?they are gonna have to trade half their prospects to the philles for cole hamels now. and hamels is overrated.


Hamels isn't getting traded. No team is willing to trade a top prospect for him. So, unless the Sox or Cubs don't include Bogaertes, A Russell, Baez, or Bryant(Who is pretty much untouchable) in the deal Hamels then will be a Phillie. Gillick is running the show now and he's not dumb enough to take anything but a team's top young player. You are also mistaken about Hamels. He is easily a top 10-12 pitcher in the game. His win totals have been low lately because the Phils 'pen has blown so many games for him. Plus, his ERA and WHIP continues to be among the best in the game. But, it must be the Mets fan in you to say that DL.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 5:37 pm 

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i dont think the cubs will go after hamels. they have $ to sign both scerzer and lester. the red sox are the only tesam in the running for him in my eyes. im sure that jackie bradley, will middlebrooksand maybe that catcher that boston has as their top prospect would get it done. the philles dont need boegarts. they have one of the top ss prospects in the minors.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 6:02 pm 

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Crawford is at least two years away. Once Rollins contract is up is when he'll play. Phillies need a 2B and possibly a 3B. They certainly could use a Bogaertes who can play 3 infield positions. He wouldn't be locked in at SS if he came to Philadelphia. The Phillies have enough OF that can't hit for power so Bradley isn't an upgrade, and they would rather ride it out with Asche or Franco than to deal with Middlebrooks. In my opinion Bogaertes and Swinhart is what it would take for Hamels. The other prospects they have wont help them. Hamels is locked up for 5 more years. His contract is pretty friendly. The Phillies aren't desperate to trade Hamels. They would prefer to trade Lee even if they have to eat some money.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 6:57 pm 

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bogearts had a horrible year. thats my only fear with him. i was just using the other guys as examples. mnookie betts included. id wants swihart and betts or swinhart/ caastillo

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 7:46 pm 
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Looks like the Red Sox got David Ortiz's eventual replacement. Hanley is a wild card but for 4 years I think it makes some sense for them.

That Seager deal totally caught me off guard. Seager and his past 2 seasons have caught me off guard too. Seems like a risky deal to give a guy who seems to have come out of nowhere, but if he sustains his current level of play its a nice move on Seattle's part. Like it more than the Kung Fu Panda signing that's for sure.


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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 7:48 pm 

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seager has done what hes done the past 2 years at every level. i cant believe that he was never really a top prospect. his brother is supposed to be better.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:05 pm 
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Adam wrote:
That Seager deal totally caught me off guard. Seager and his past 2 seasons have caught me off guard too. Seems like a risky deal to give a guy who seems to have come out of nowhere, but if he sustains his current level of play its a nice move on Seattle's part. Like it more than the Kung Fu Panda signing that's for sure.


I watch Seattle quite a bit and he definitely isn't a flash in the pan. He's had incremental improvement every year and in his age 26 year, he hit 25 HRs and 96 RBIs, hitting half of his games in Safeco and won his first Gold Glove. That's $14MM per season for his age 27-33 years. Unless some catastrophic injury happens, you really don't see corner infield guys age until their mid-30's, so all of his best years should be in front of him. I love this contract for Seattle.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:34 pm 
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Yeah, you would certainly know best regarding Seager. He just appeared out of nowhere from me and it seemed like for most folks as well. Without cable or having followed the M's, I just wasn't sure of what to make of him and his rise.

It should be interesting to see how the Rockies deal with Arrenado now. Might make the need to trade a Cargo or Tulo this season to get out from one of those deals more important.


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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:38 pm 
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This should at least put the pressure on Oakland to extend or trade Donaldson.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:47 pm 
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Josh Donaldson is A's property for 4 more seasons and is already 29. I know there's been lots of talk about his status but I actually don't think Oakland has any need to feel pressured to do anything with him right now. He's there's until he's 34, it actually seems like a pretty sweet set up for the A's.


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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 9:50 pm 
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Yeah, but the M's had Seager for the next four years as well. I'm sure the A's brass will be fielding calls from Donaldson's agent. It's gotta be frustrating for him playing for the cheaper franchise.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 10:04 pm 
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Seager being a couple years younger makes a big difference, IMO. At 31 he should be peaking and if he were to have become a free agent at that time, the M's would have had to pay him a ton of money for a ton of years. This contract prevents that situation from ever presenting and they got him at friendly cost. Donaldson will be just leaving his peak years when he finally hits free agency and shouldn't present much temptations to a team run by Billy Beane to pay for past production.

That all said, I could see Oakland trading him if the deal is right. I guess I don't see the pressure so many writers seem to be alluding to when it comes to trading him. I kinda think Oakland is in a really good situation here.

And, yeah, Donaldson must be so frustrated with his situation. He is definitely getting shafted.


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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 3:28 am 
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It was either ego or bad advice that made Panda go to Boston for just another $5MM over five years. He'll be forever beloved in SF and now he's in probably the tightest, most scrutinized media market outside of New York. He doesn't seem concerned about his weight, so that's going to be sore point; it's only a matter of time. Ask Adrian Gonzales and Carl Crawford how fun it is to play there when you sign a big contract and under-perform.

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 Post subject: Re: Baseball 2014
PostPosted: Tue Nov 25, 2014 11:32 am 
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So apparently the terms SF gave Panda were very similar to Boston and San Diego was even willing to go six years, so all I can figure is that Sandoval liked the idea of falling into a DH spot once his fielding skills start diminishing. I guess I can respect that.

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